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Read these predictions carefully.
In 1958, Herbert Simon wrote that within ten years, a computer would be chess champion, prove significant new mathematical theorems, and compose music of real value. In 1965, he predicted that machines would be capable of doing any work a human can do within twenty years. Marvin Minsky said in 1970 that within a generation, the problem of creating artificial intelligence would be substantially solved.
The predictions did not come close. A computer did not defeat the world chess champion until 1997, decades late. The biggest promise, a machine that could do any human job, had not been kept by the time these lessons were written. These were serious, public, and documented forecasts from leading figures in the field, and history proved them far too optimistic.