What made them so sure

The confidence wasn’t baseless. They had results.

The Logic Theorist had proved many mathematical theorems, including one more elegantly than its human authors. General Problem Solver could tackle abstract puzzles. ELIZA could sustain a conversation convincing enough to make the machine seem surprisingly human.

Each result was a foothold. Each one suggested the remaining distance was short.

They looked at what they had built and assumed the rest of the climb would be similar. It wouldn’t be.